Prevent, search or destroy? A partially observable model for invasive species management

Abstract

Summary: The extensive impact of invasive species has motivated a growing field of research combining ecological and economic models to find cost-effective management strategies. Ecological systems are rarely perfectly observable, meaning decision-makers are usually uncertain about the current extent of an infestation and even whether an invasive species is present or absent. We show how to account for this uncertainty when providing decision support for invasive species management. We constructed the first partially observable model to analyse the trade-off between all three facets of invasive species management: quarantine, surveillance and control. We use a partially observable Markov dec..